Today’s Stock Ideas
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1. TSMC Margin Dilution Forecast Raises Longer-Term Caution
"So here's the comments that I'm talking about from Taiwan Semiconductors management team in the company's earnings call with Wall Street analysts late last week. They now expect the gross margin dilution from the ramp up of our overseas fabs to be closer to 2% in the second half of 2025 and 1 to 2% for the full year, compared to the previous estimate of 2 to 3%. But then, just as quickly as Taiwan Semiconductor gets your hopes up, they then put your hopes down by forecasting a 2 to 3% hit in the early stages and 3 to 4% in the later stages as more production moves overseas."
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA (Parkev Tatevosian, CFA)
The speaker highlights TSMC's earnings call where management forecast a lower-than-expected margin dilution for 2025, but warned that as more production shifts overseas, the gross margin dilution will climb to between 2% and 4% over the coming years. This commentary cautions investors to temper short-term optimism with longer-term margin pressures.
2. Trade Call: Hold Fairfax India for Long-Term Growth
"So I personally use some of the parts valuation and I think you should apply 20% discount to that NAV. That's my view. I think people shouldn't be too scared of some of the partial valuations. It's just the fact that if you're buying a company that isn't growing, that isn't paying out dividends, yeah, you can get stuck there for a long time. But in this case, you have like this immense growth tailwinds in terms of the Indian economy and also passenger growth. So I'm very happy to sit on it and if it trades a 20% discount forever, completely fine. I think it's going to grow. The value is going to grow 10% per year if you apply multiple, you know."
Michael Fritzell (Chit Chat Stocks Podcast)
Michael Fritzell expresses confidence in Fairfax India despite its current 20% discount to NAV. He highlights the companys strong growth tailwinds, driven by a booming Indian economy and rising passenger numbers, and states his intent to hold the stock long-term, expecting a 10% annual growth in value.
3. Buy Marcato Libre (ME)
"Finally, stock number four is Marcato Libre, stock ticker ME. Shares of ME have fallen more than 15% in the last month, making this a potential great opportunity to add a solid growth name from outside the US to your portfolio. Given its robust revenue growth and the expansion of both its core e-commerce and payment processing platforms, I see this as a strict buy. I won"t be looking at options for this stock due to the high per share price and low volume, so it"s a straightforward buy in my opinion."
Mark Rousen (Mark Roussin, CPA)
The speaker identifies Marcato Libre (ME) as a buy based on its significant pullback and strong growth potential in both e-commerce and payment processing. He emphasizes that, due to low option volume, the strategy will be a direct purchase rather than an options play.