Pierce on Markets: I Haven’t Bought Yet
The market ripped yesterday. I didn't buy.
Ceasefire talks between Iran and the US sent everything green. The strait is still closed though. Energy isn't moving. A headline isn't a reason to deploy capital.
Same movie, different day. Big down day, huge bounce, rejection back below the moving averages. Every single time for a month straight.
That's a Stage 4 downtrend. Stan Weinstein coined it. Look him up. It'll change how you read charts.
Yesterday SPY closed above its 9-day EMA for the first time since February 26th. Good sign. But one day doesn't flip a trend.
My line is the 200-day moving average. When SPY reclaims it and holds, I'll start entering positions. Until then, cash.
I'm down 9% on the year. Not fun to type. But being early in a downtrend feels exactly like being right, until it doesn't.
If you bought yesterday, good for you. I'm not chasing it yet.
-Pierce
Founder, InvestorWaves.com
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Note: This article does not provide investment advice. The stocks mentioned should not be taken as recommendations. Your investments are solely your decisions.