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Nvidia Just Dropped a $150B Buyback
Another Fed Hike Is Now the Base Case
Stocks Are Back in Dot-Com Territory
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The S&P 500’s Shiller P/E has reached 41.48, putting the market back in valuation territory previously seen only around the dot-com bubble. The all-time monthly record is 44.19, set in December 1999.
High starting CAPE readings have historically been associated with lower long-term real returns, but they have not reliably identified the exact month when a bull market ends. The current reading shows how much future growth is already reflected in $SPY ( ▲ 0.3% ) and $QQQ ( ▲ 0.62% ) , not when that optimism will reverse.
NVIDIA authorized an additional $150 billion for share repurchases on Sept. 28, 2026, raising its total remaining buyback authorization to $235 billion.
The company said it expects to execute the remaining program through fiscal 2028. The authorization does not mean all shares are bought immediately; it gives NVIDIA’s board-approved capacity to repurchase stock over time.
The chart shows how much larger the latest authorization is than NVIDIA’s recent buyback increases. The company approved additional authorizations of $25 billion in 2023, $50 billion in 2024, $60 billion in 2025, $80 billion in May 2026, and now $150 billion in September 2026.
NVIDIA’s stock price has climbed alongside that capital-return capacity.
The market is now betting the Fed hikes rates again in October. The odds just hit 68.1%, up from 55.4% two weeks ago.
The probability spiked to 70.9% on September 23 as oil prices surged and Fed officials talked tough on inflation. Two weeks ago an October hike was a coin flip. Now it is the base case.
Oil above $108 changed the math. Energy inflation is back and the Fed is watching it.
The bond market agrees. The 10 year yield is at 5.22%, its highest since 2007. The 30 year sits at 5.53%.
Wednesday's PCE inflation report and Friday's jobs report will decide this. Hot data locks in the hike.
The Fed spent two years fighting inflation. It is not done yet.
Stock of the Day
MSFT: Microsoft Corp
Microsoft’s sustained mid-teens revenue growth, high institutional ownership, and leading cloud footprint position it as a timely leader in Cloud & Hosting Infrastructure themes.
Not investment advice. Do your own research.
Note: This article does not provide investment advice. The stocks mentioned should not be taken as recommendations. Your investments are solely your decisions.